Goldfish_One Some hard questions and difficult to answer without...

Goldfish_One

Some hard questions and difficult to answer without having access to the books.

Cash at Bank...well at the end of last Quarter (June)
- $3.08M
However cash balance was effected by delayed inflows at 30 June...timing issues.

My understanding is that the following amounts have now been rolled over into the Sept Quarter and should ultimately be reflected in the next quarterly.

So for the sake of the argument lets say they were received in the June Quarter

- Cash $3.08
- Shipping proceeds receivable 30 June $6M
- Realised hedge gain June shipment $4M
- Tax Refund $4.7
= Total $17.78M (estimate only)

How much do they owe creditors...hard to determine as at Half Yearly Report 31 Dec 2013 it stood at $41.4M and we know that from the last rights issue in March they paid $10M to trade creditors.

MBL Interest Rate...NFI...all I can pick up from the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow is...
Item 1.5 - Interest and other costs of finance paid $1.829M for the Qtr and $9.818M YTD but have no idea of the terms of the loan facility.

Re 62% Fe - You are Correct. The average ore grade shipped was 59.94% Fe and as a result the average price achieved during the previous qtr was AUD$104/t.

This $ figure is anticipated to increase due to improvements made to the crushing circuit configuration and associated processes together with improved feed quality as mining in the oxide zone is substantially complete (Taken from page 9 of June Quarterly Report).

So the focus now is on delivering >60% Fe

Hedging Rate for Sept and Dec Quarters
Approx 1/4 of production for the September and December quarter has been hedged at an average price of AUD$115 per (dmt) for 62% Fe on a CFR China Basis.

Anticipated Revenue for Sept and Dec Qtr's - based on hedging currently in place at AUD$115/t, AUD at 93c and Iron Ore Spot at AUD$92/t (US$86/t)

Back of the envelope stuff here...
750,000t/4 = 187,500t @ average AUD$115/t = AUD$21.5M
+
562,500t @ AUD$92t = AUD$51.7M

Total Revenue approx AUD$73.2M for September and December Quarters.

This is where the C1 costs critically come in to play...so we can calculate what is going to be in the bank each qtr after ALL COSTS (Admin inclusive).

For me these are the major influences:

- Achieving or exceeding Production and Shipping Targets (=>250,000t/pm)
- Grade of >60% Fe
- AUD$ versus US$ (Drop in AUD$ favorable)
- Iron Ore Spot Price (Increase in US$ favorable)


Also note in the Macquarie Private Wealth Report released in January this year...that once the debt had been repaid to MBL...they were forecasting a 9.9% dividend yield NEXT YEAR (2015).

So the boys and girls in the Millionaires Factory (MBL) might not be as crash hot as one might think...IMO

Hope the above has gone some way to answer your questions...I'm no expert...just trying to identify if there is in fact positive cash flow out of this company...and how much of it.

I just keep coming back to the MBL DEBT...its going to have to be settled because by my calcs if Iron Ore Spot price hits US$75 next year...we might just make enough profit to service the interest payments.

As far as putting your hard earned in...sorry I can't give you an opinion on that.

As always...Buyer Beware and don't get sucked into the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) Syndrome

All of the above IMO and DYOR