Hate saying this but the SP seems to be following a pattern, where it builds on low volume in anticipation of good news only to be sold down once the news hits the market. ASX300 listing is an example of this. Will it happen again leading up to the update expected in April/May?
Would prefer no sell off, on good news but the day traders are here to make a quick buck
Have read a few articles (see link for some) on the oil production in US where it is clear that the number of rigs drilling has dropped off sharply, but what has not dropped off is the level of production. They are producing so much oil that they are running out of storage. The article indicated that once that happens (could be June this year) they expect the oil price to drop further. This will have a big impact on all producers, which will need to get smarter and more efficient to keep afloat. Thanks Ksingh for posting the Ryan Lance interview, it highlights that the Yanks are very good at innovations. So we can be sure that the shale oil industry will continue to produce even in a low oil price market well into the future. The million dollar question is what will the long term oil price be, $10USD or $90USD, no one really knows.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...r-6-year-low-as-u-s-supply-seen-filling-tanks
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/372e52bc-c98b-11e4-a2d9-00144feab7de.html#axzz3UXpZAU7A
http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/outlook/new-oil-order.html?CID=PS_02_11_07_00_00_15_01
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-future-price-of-oil--nobody-has-a-clue-180610324.html
The good news is that CNE in there Q&A stated that their breakeven with a IRR was $40USD, so as long as the long term oil price is greater than $40USD CNE, COP will be very happy with SNE. $40USD as an average price over 20 to 30 years seem very achievable.
What may add to a lower breakeven for Senegal is as they stated anything within 25km and over 75m barrels could be tied into SNE. So I printed the map and using their 10km legend got a rough 25km estimate, then drew a 25km radius around SNE1. Was quite happy to see that most if not all prospects in some part intersected my 25km radius. Half of Beer didn't as it runs for another 25km north. If/When they find oil in the BH's it could dramatically change the project because of this fact. Otherwise solving the issues with FAN1 will also have the same impact if/when it flows oil.
Thank you Ya for the CNE Q&A, it is now on my bedside table next to Cath's Q&A.
I was very happy to read the question about being majority holder of the JV, wounder how much CNE or COP would pay for that right. We know there is only one real option and that is taking out FAR
So back to waiting for
Day trades to perform there next P&D
The update on last years drilling and a updated inventory of prospects
The drill bit to prove what we are hoping for
Seeing if the Indian Government will bring CNE to its knees while COP and FAR sits back licking their lips
The oil price to increase
Discovery of oil in BH lower breakeven point
But mainly watching the pressure on CNE and COP build to become a majority holder by buying out FAR
IMHO, DYOR and GLTA FAR long, day traders make your own luck
(20min delay)