Jordy,
I think it is most likely that Senegal is the factor pushing Cairns price. There is some drama over Kraken with one of the JV partners having had debt difficulties and recently resolving them (?). I'm not quite up to date with it, but this is the only possible other factor I can see. SNE certainly wouldn't be hurting Cairn.
As for Brexit and geo-politics: Oil couldn't care less. People invest billions in West Africa, Central America, Central Asia and the Middle East. Political instability is a reality in such places; in London and Edinburgh it is a figure of speech.
The point is that the world (the part of it we call the 'real economy') still needs 95+ mbbo every day.
Cheers
Jordy, I think it is most likely that Senegal is the factor...
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