Hard to tell if you really don't understand what they are saying...

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mjp2

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15/10/19

18:08

Post #: 40894179
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Originally posted by aatisket: ↑

I bet your little lungs were pumping out the co2 when you noticed that.

In fact the IPCC make the comment about the nonlinear chaotic nature of the climate in a number of spots. I will confess I was thinking more about this one on page 774, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WGI_TAR_full_report.pdf -
"In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible"

which is essentially the same thing. However, I have quoted verbatim from a different source which also omitted the word "exact". No trolling intended.

The second line Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the systems future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions is rightly ignored, because in a chaotic system, results that conclude man made disastrous climate change is a 95% certainty is complete rot IMO. You can please yourself if your scientific knowledge permits that level of influence in a heavily political body.

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Hard to tell if you really don't understand what they are saying there, or whether you are just a troll.

all this says is that the exact future path is variable and chaotic - El -Nino or La Nina year etc - so models do a stochastic ensemble of the range of possible climate variability outcomes.

But within that ensemble range the greenhouse gas warming trend is seen.

Illustrating the point: The ensemble range vs observed outcomes. From memory the circled last three dots are around 2012, 2013 and 2014 observations.

Last edited by mjp2: 15/10/19
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