Coal and the renewable lies

After doing some reading regarding the cost benefit analysis I have found consistently the following assumptions have been made when advocating renewables in particular as an alternative to coal. Many have turned out to be false.

1. We will need less power going forward. Replacing millions of petrol cars with electric will require more electrical power not less. Also this was based on the assumption that during the day everyone would work in power efficient offices. Covid has changed that dynamic at least in the short term.

2. Electricity prices will rise 2 to 3 percent a year. this seems accurate but demonstrates that there has to be less power at higher prices to make the math work.

3. Relative cheapness of coal will disappear with Nat gas and LPG becoming cheaper. This was from the Japanese renewable agency in 2019 and is clearly wrong with the relative cheapness of coal increasing not decreasing and the cost of Nat gas sending utility companies bankrupt in Europe.

4. The cost of renewables will get cheaper over time. The current inflationary outlook and rising commodity prices would suggest otherwise.

5. Coal infrastructure will become stranded assets. Maybe but with the IRR of a coal plant approx 10 percent and lifetime of min 30 years easily enough time to pay for itself and make the money required for demolition etc.

It is also worthwhile pointing out that wind turbines can have a good IRR but only when exporting 50 percent of their energy, ie 50 percent is required for their operation. When exporting 100percent IRR can be 0.

In Australia we have approx 200 sunny days a year around most major cities with at least 7 hrs of daylight in winter so solar works here and shifts the balance into the renewables camp. However in Europe can have 4hrs of daylight in winter or less and in many places in Asia there are fewer non overcast days. Also Asia and Europe lack their own oil and gas and have to import most if not all. That has implications for energy and National security. For example Russia could make demands and threaten to turn off the gas. It is clear that the wind/Nat gas experiment has failed in Europe. I think solar/gas can work in certain places like Oz but not everywhere. The question is what does the future of energy look like particularly in Europe and Asia now we know the assumption used for advocating renewables in these places are wrong and the cost benefit analysis for these forms of energy needs to be dramatically recalculated to face the new realities.

Will Europe be forced to build new coal fired power plants? Seems unlikely but escalating costs and Energy security risks will be a very motivating factor.