coal future use, page-12

Amazed,

Not sure that I would based coal investment decisions on the output of an organisation who's mission is (in part)
--------------------
In this project scientists are working on studies independently of Government and company interests concerning

- the shortage of fossil and atomic energy
resources,
- development scenarios for regenerative energy
sources as well as
- strategies deriving from these for a long-term
secure energy supply at affordable prices.

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Even tho the carbon lobbying system is characterized by political information, they have a point of view.

While sx definitely has a different view of inventories and resources in Asia and the nma or usgs in the usa, I am actually more bearish, mainly because if carbon starts to be priced (which it should be in the period we are discussing (to 2025)) it is my experience/view that price signals act to affect demand much more sharply than supply (i.e. SO2 pricing in US, NOx pricing and controls in many places in the 80's, petrol world wide!!)!

I doubt that coal production will shrink to reflect demand softening if carbon is priced, leading to different price and inventory outcomes compared to all three above, but for different reasons.

US output per miner, which the report is talking about reflects production shifting (in % terms to the dragline mines in the powder basin and south as the midwest (http://pubs.usgs.gov/mf-maps/mf-2459.pdf) and app region(http://pubs.usgs.gov/mf-maps/mf-2330/milici2.pdf) (smaller mines) slow. Actual volumes continue to increase.

i.e. http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/acr/acr_sum.html

compared to historical table on usgs site:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1996/of96-092/other_files/us_coal.pdf

2008 production is 1710 mst, +70% from 1995. Gross Energy content up 56%.