Terry McCrans Article from Herald Sun 16.12.2010THE myth of...

Terry McCrans Article from Herald Sun 16.12.2010

THE myth of China's switch to so-called clean energy has been blown right out of the water by research from HSBC Bank.

China already has easily the world's biggest coal-fired power sector. It's roughly double the size of the US's coal-fired power generation - and about 15 times the size of ours.

Most of the huge growth planned for Chinese electricity generation over the next ten years is also going to come from coal-fired power. This leads to two broad conclusions.

Our thermal coal industry will be able to sell as much coal into world markets as it can dig up. Because in addition to the coming huge increase in demand from China, there is also India following a similar path.

Secondly, if emissions of carbon dioxide do cause global warming, go short long winter woolies.

There is nothing, nothing the developed world can do to offset the CO2 that is going to be pumped by China and India. Short that is, of stopping the world, so we can all get off. Which is exactly what the Green movement would like us do.

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The myth of a Chinese switch to so-called clean energy has become the last refuge of the global warming scoundrels, in their desperate attempts to prop up the climate change scam and the endless free lunch of handouts and gas-belching conferences.

We saw it again at and after Cantcun. No, China (and India) wouldn't sign up to even non-binding commitments to cut its emissions. But it was 'shaming' the developed world and Australia in particular with its huge expansion in 'renewable' energy.

Utter bulldust, as the analysis from HSBC shows. Analysis that is all the more damning because it's actually trying to prove exactly that case.

It comes from HSBC's alternative energy research team in London and their report is headed - without the slightest trace of irony or self-knowledge - "Low-carbon China." It's what they leave out that's so revealing and damning.

For example: China's got a 15 per cent target for non-fossil fuel energy by 2020, the report notes - implying "substantial growth sub-targets for hydro, nuclear, solar and wind."

What the report doesn't spell out is that if 15 per cent will be coming from "non-fossil fuel" sources, that means, well, 85 per cent will be coming from fossil fuel sources, otherwise known as coal and a little bit of gas.

Let me break out the numbers, including the ones the HSBC team didn't get around to actually detailing.

Right now China's total electricity generating capacity is around 900GW. Ours by the way is around 50GW.

Almost all of China's generation is coal or - to Bob Brown and Christine Milne - the almost as evil hydro. But it's mostly coal, at around 670GW, with 200GW or so of hydro.

So if we shut our entire coal-fired power sector, we would offset about 7 per cent of China's current coal-fired emissions. And in doing so increase the amount of real pollution in the world as our generators don't pump the real grit and dirt that China's do.

Over the next 10 years HSBC - and just about everyone else - estimates China is going to double, yes, double, its installed capacity. To 1800GW. Which will make it around 30 times Australia's then.

That increase is going to all be lovely so-called clean energy isn't it, as the HSBC team gush? Maybe also some - Julia Gillard, close your eyes and ears - nuclear?

Well, actually, no.

HSBC says the targets are for - wicked, wicked dams-driven - hydro to increase to 380GW, wind to leap to 150GW, nuclear to go to 80GW and solar to 20GW.

Sounds impressive in our terms. Wind that's triple our total power sector, solar that's approaching half.

But do the math. Take all that away from 1800GW, as HSBC does not, and you are left with 1170GW.

That's err, going to be coal and a little bit of gas. That's, a little bit of gas in Chinese terms, huge potential export volumes for us.

Let's be generous and attribute 70GW to gas by 2020. That would see coal increase by two thirds from today's 670GW to 1100GW.

That is to say, a China purportedly relentlessly pursuing so-called clean energy, would increase its coal-fired power generation over just ten years by more than 10 times the size of our entire coal-fired power sector.

By 2020 the Chinese coal-fired power sector will be close to thirty times the size of ours and triple that of the US.

Is it entirely beyond the ken of even the simplest prime minister and cabinet to see the utter pointlessness of attacking our coal-fired power industry and hurting consumers by artificially pushing up power prices?

Yes, China might be making a massive investment in alternative energy. But even so, by 2020 wind and solar will add to less than 10 per cent of its total generating capacity on official targets. On HSBC's higher estimates, they would still only add to 15 per cent. Crucially of course, these numbers are in relation to generation capacity. What power you actually get is a very different matter. When the wind don't blow and the sun don't shine ...

That means the actual percentage of power that China - going gang-busters to install so-called clean energy - will get from wind and solar in 2020 will be more like 3-5 per cent of its total electricity.

Almost all of much more than it generates today will be coming from coal. And then there's India on top, so to speak.

As I say: go long coal mines, go short winter fashion. If, of course, you're a believer.