After reaching a peak in Mid June of 15Mt for thermal coal held...

After reaching a peak in Mid June of 15Mt for thermal coal held at Chinese ports. As at 10 August, total inventory stands at 12.5Mt. In the last two weeks, the inventory levels have fallen 10.2% (or has moved one stardard deviation from the mean inventory levels in academic speak // in media speak, they would headline this as a crash, or something like "China runs out of Coal"), and data from Qinhuangdao port shows a decrease of 13.7% in the last two weeks. Since the peak in at 15 June, inventory at Qinhuangdao has dropped 23.2% as of 10 August. The drop in inventory levels in the cycle is unusual in that, traditionally, they begin falling precipitously around September-October in line with the winter chill.

Eg. At the cyclical peak at the beginning of September, at Qinhuangdao, the inventory usually stands between 7.5-8mt of thermal coal. This year, early August, and the inventory already stands at 7.2mt and falling. My sentiment is that they'll need to enter the market in a big way to compensate.

Coal Prices seem to have made a double bottom from mid June to mid July.

The Coal Producers ETF trading on the NYSE, made a low in mid June and another fresh low in late July, which now looks to be a classic bear-trap scenario. The KOL ETF has now bounced 30% from late July.

Coal Prices appear to lag inventory levels, KOL shares are lagging the coal prices. I'm confident that at some point, Australians will wake up and start following the real trends in the market... rather than what they're spoon fed by the media mob.

JRCC up 5% and +68% from the low
ACI up 0.5% and +45% from the low
ANR up 1.4% and +28% from the low
BTU up 1% and +24% from the low
YZC down 2.5% and +19% from the low

Don't mention a word to the share price performance of coalers down under.