coal price, page-2

The coal price and the weakness of the Aussie are the deciding factors for Felix Resources.

The oil price will drag the coal price behind it.

Semi-soft coke may plunge from its heady US$240 per tonne to a range between US$110 - US$130 per tonne, principally from the Ashton mine in NSW.

PCI coal which trades around US$180 per tonne may drop back to nearer US$100 per tonne, and thermal to the range US$70 to US$80 per tonne. PCI coal principally from the Yarrabee mine.

Moolarben open-cut is all thermal coal and is a shallow low cost project, set to produce 3.2mtpa from 2010. The underground mine will follow with 6.4mtpa of good quality thermal.

The weak Aussie at A$1.56 to the US$1 will help, but not enough.

Analysts had previously given the YE June 30th 2009 for Felix an average EBIT of $417 million, for sales of 5 million tonnes
Felix have high costs for developing Moolarben and coal sales are expected to drop back to between 4 to 4.5 million tonnes in 2009.

Despite all this Felix look the strongest of the Aussie coal miners and the 53 cent dividend looks set to be raised in 2009. Probably only to 60 - 65 cents or so against previous hopes of around $1.