when to get in and out of an investment is an individual choice. I have held many stocks that I have taken 20-30% profit only to see the SP go up 200,300 or 400%.
What you have got to ask yourself is why did you buy into NMR before XMAS and what has changed fundamentally (or technically) to make you sell??
The way I see it, nothing has changed fundamentally at all. In fact the latest release from NMR and the report by DJMC point to a further resource upgrade and the added coverage by DJMC means that there will be more eyes on NMR than there was before Xmas!
1) The point you make regarding low quality coal, what are you basing that on?? yeah the sulphur levels are high in a portion on the find, but calorific values are high and also the quality of the coal differs over the different seams, please refer DJCM report or even the comparison I did a while ago regarding AFD/NMR.
2) I would argue that all coal resources are awaiting the kalahari rail development (proposed track runs right past NMR resource) in Botswana, the existing rail may not even be able to support large quantities of export coal - as mentioned in the AFR Helmsec report.
3) Yeah NMR will need to raise cash, sure! But they have sufficient funds for the short term ie to get the scoping study completed etc.
4) Well, not gonna deny that! Europe looking shakey for sure - who knows whats gonna happen there - but in taking that stance surely you would put all your cash in the bank (or the mattress)
Finally the point that everyone is making is that NMR is hugely undervalued in comparison to its peers!! and if it adds more quality coal tonnage from the south - it looks even more undervalued! IMO
But as I said it depends on your trading strategy, if you sold out before XMAS at a profit, you might have made a few pips and if thats your plan then stick to it! But other people have other plans and ways of valuing stocks.
With more good news in the pipeline for NMR (scoping study and resource upgrade) and for the Botswana coal (kalahari rail) my strategy is longer term with this one!
all IMO DYOR!
PB
NMR Price at posting:
4.8¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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