It's hard to know what the long-term price for low quality...

It's hard to know what the long-term price for low quality thermal is going to do. There are huge deposits of the stuff everywhere and they've never been developed because they were uneconomic.

Now you've proposed low-quality mines sprouting up in Botswana (NMR, AFR, et al), Australia (EER), Mongolia (TVN et al), which if they all come online at about the same time is likely to flood the market. Especially since these are DEFINITELY uneconomic unless they are very large, so each of these mines is looking at 20Mtpa+.

On top of that you have the mid-quality mines coming online in equally staggering numbers - the Qld Galilee mines are 30-40Mtpa each, Adani are even talking 60. Then there are the Surat mines, COK and Xstrata and others. If the mid-quality market is flooded that will likely reduce demand for the low-quality stuff.

But that's all many years away. For a company like NMR the long-term fundamentals take a distant second place to the short-term speculation in a perceived "hot" sector, IMO.