coal sale still on .... and ubs is still there, page-20

Lefevre,

Thanks, I did not know there was an AFR article today. A 20% drop in the NPV from $1500m still leaves $1200m. A $1200m NPV does not make the projects uneconomic as you initially stated. That is nearly double the current market cap (485m shares at todays close). LNC has more than a few hundred million in other assets/intangibles that arent for sale that also need to be accounted for in that calculation.
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Its too reactionary to suggest that the rest of the world will be able to make up for these hundred(s) of billions of dollars of projects that journalists claim will not proceed in Australia. Mining CEOs are claiming doom and gloom but that is just part of the lobbying process that is gaining momentum.

If the tax goes thru, marginal Australian projects will drop away, but profitable ones will proceed. More marginal projects in other countries may get taken up, but only after significant delays (because they were not being assessed/drilled etc) and this will be a partial contributor to rising world resource prices. It is because Australia is a dominant world supplier of resources that Rudd believes he can export part of the tax via higher prices. It would be good to know whether the AFR took this effect into account when claiming a 20% NPV reduction. Otherwise, it could be less.

You are right that Rudd has created massive uncertainty with his big government approach. It is a consistent trend of his term in government following on the back of the no-go carbon scheme. The best government is a small one imo.

Cheers
Bleasby