Yeah...I was a little anxious but I figured a stock can always be volatile when it has such a great run...some people will always be tempted to take the money a run. The next few weeks I expect to be sitting on a loss here and there.
I think the following is probably what you have done Poyndexter but anyway,
QGC: 336 PJ/$250million = 1.3455PJ per million $
Assuming the EPG reserves in recent announcement are 2P and are of equivalent value to those of QGC (unrealistic given the higher gas price in Europe)
EPG KBO: 979PJ/1.3455PJ = $727 million potential capitalisation
$727 million/138million shares on issue = $5.20/share.
Even if you divide by 2 to be safe because it is unclear whether the reserves listed are 2P reserve (like QGC's which are used in the above calculation)...that's still $2.60 a share.
Without contracts signed and financed raised the use of QGC prices is a long bow to draw. But then again the gas price is much higher in Europe. Any number is pretty arbitrary with so many risks between now and potential revenue, but the overall point is that they have a heap of gas...they just need to figure out how to get it out as cheaply as possible without too much dilution. Equity is the safest you would think with revenue a few years off.
Are those figures in the reserve announcement 2P figures? They say they expect to recover 50% but aren't specific about it. I'm assuming the financiers will demand independent assessment of all these figures too...the certification process for QGC was quite a drawn out process.
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