Hi Ya – those are tonnages only so people can make their own judgement (cant spoon feed). Hence if one believed they know the average gas saturation they are able to undertake the standard multiplier by cross referencing it to the tonnage bar graph. Ie if you expected 15,000sqkm of coals at an average 60m thickness (ie 1.211tr tonnes) then apply your assumed saturation levels based on that. n/b – I have shown the extreme graph in this instance (ie 140m thickness over 30,000 sqkm for info purposes only) so I guess it’s harder to look at the finer detail.
I have my own thoughts as to the expected gas results and have some figures prepared however the company has stated on several occasions what it expects from the package and I’m sure the latest results will be quite interesting nonetheless. CBM93001 at c. 1000m had C1=10,618/C2=2,356/C3639 etc etc and the 950 to 1110m section looks the most promising. I’d assume the guys will be a little conservative aswell.
In regards to production and actual SP impact when it comes to gas (not just NPV) if one were to use 9mscf per bbl for GTF and 10mscf GTL then they would be able to work out the approximate value per share. For diagrammatic purposes, we’ll use a near term structure based on the following parameters: (400m dil, $0.68 Ex, $48 US bbl, $25 cap Ex payback, % RI held, and 35% RR of P10 1.9TCF) Ooraminna, would be worth around $4.37 per share NPV. Obviously Ooraminna is not CBM but the same parameters apply.
Also just to clarify, Johnstone is not worth $100 per share NPV, it is worth $21.83 (400m dil, $0.68 Ex, $40 US bbl, $6 cap Ex payback, % RI held, and 25% RR of P10 998mmbls). But realistically, one need to consider the fact that NPAT is what the company will be more heavily valued on over the longer term and that comes down to production rates.
Ps – just came across your post in regards to that Italian well, might have to look into it lol ;)
CTP Price at posting:
11.4¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
