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How many snowy 2 or how many tesla batteries do you need to...

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mudguts

11,662 Posts.

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21/08/19

12:39

Post #: 40075135
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Originally posted by mjp2 ↑

Longer term you're right. But in the short term it's a big project over decades to roll out enough renewables and storage to allow a 100% renewables system.

Snowy II will provide a lot of what's required both in storage flexibility and renewables energy. Batteries will become cheap enough down the track. There are other possibilities like Bass Link expansion, and hence increased utilisation of Tasmania hydro and other renewables that can be developed there. And some transmission line capacity build will likely be needed to strongly interconnect diverse renewables the length of the East Coast. There are some interesting projects looking at DC link submarine cable inter-ties to Indonesia from massive solar farms in northern WA, that would increase the diversity and export value of increasing renewables. All that's been discussed on these threads before.

My best assessment, from knowledge of the industry, but without being close to an actual planning and modelling group, is that over the next 10 years you can build as much solar and wind as you can and, with a bit of care, be fine with coal and gas firming that - provided that the system operator is given the tools to manage that increasing renewables mix with coal and gas firming. And if that means keeping one or two coal stations going in that firming roll, to extend life rather than see them decommissioned, then that may be a valid decision.

South Australia largely was a problem of transmission lines falling over, not a renewables issue. But it does point to the importance of strong interconnection.

After that you are likely going to need additional storage solutions (beyond Snowy II) to balance increasing renewables to 100%.

It looks a pretty smooth transition, so long as all your coal doesn't decommission while you still need them for firming. That's a risk given declining utilisation of coal as wind and solar pushes them off grid much of the time. For a period you are likely to need some capacity availability contracts to pay coal generators to be available when needed.

That won't be a perfect view of the future, but pretty indicative I think.

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How many snowy 2 or how many tesla batteries do you need to ensure 24/7.

Getting through one night just doesn't cut it. You need to build in redundancy.

Using a reasonable 80% efficiency for the scheme, (basic physics tells us here are no “free lunches”, 440,000 MWh of energy is needed to pump enough water to achieve the 350,000 MWh output from one 7 day period. This power will come from “the grid”. The hope is that it will be from “large scale renewables”.

Currently Australia’s installed capacity of wind power – the only large scale renewable resource – is 4,400 MW. On average, they operate at 30 to 35% of installed capacity so averaged over a year the actual capacity is 1,540 MW, (4,400X0.35).

To pump the water needed for the 350,000 MWh output needs the total Australian capacity of wind power for 12 days. That is 12 days without them putting any energy into the grid for ordinary consumers. At midday on 28 August 2017, (when I wrote the initial article), the combined wind power resources of Australia were producing at 150 MW. At that output the pumping time to “fill” the system is 122 days.

The scheme can then deliver 350,000 MWh over 7 days, (50,000 MWh per day). At midday on 28 August 2017 the total grid load was 24,000 MW so in 2 hours the grid consumed 48,000 MWh or 96% of a “Snowy 2.0” day.

Your going to need another 100 snow 2 & thousands of Telsa's if you want 24/7 100% renewable.

That Tesla battery will barely proved 2 minutes of base load power for SA, then it needs to be charges. Renewables can't then charge the battey & provide the base load power demand. Just as the pumped hydro sucks power from the grid to "recharge"

Don't forget all these renewables need to be renewed (is this why they are called renewables ) every 10 to 20 years, so you are on a giant treadmill of care & maintenance.

Then this happens. Imagine cyclone Debbie causing grief.

Who cleans this up & will guarantee being back on line in 24 to 48 hours?
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