Hi Chuck,I understand your comments, however, I just do not see...

Hi Chuck,
I understand your comments, however, I just do not see where the additional seats will come from.

Including ACT and NT, the Coalition have 20 seats up for grabs (39 overall), and Labor 14 (28 overall). The Democrats have 4 (4 overall), and the Greens 2 (4 overall). Family First waits till 2011.

In SA, I see Xenophon getting up (probably a 1.5x quota), taking from the Democrats, but otherwise 3LIB and 2 LAB.

In NSW, the Greens have one up for re-election, and to get 2, would require 30% of the vote. For Labor to take a 3rd seat would effectively require a 60% anti-coalition vote.

In 2004, the 'grand coalition' (ALP, DEM and GRN) scored 46% of the vote. They need to, therefore, add another 14 points. Even the momentum swing currently takes this no higher than 5%.

NSW = 3:2:1

Victoria, is another wipeout for the Democrats. Here, the Greens will likely take the 6th seat, but otherwise retain the status quo. 47% was the 'GC' results of 2004.

In Queensland, the GC vote was sub-40 in 2004. Hence the 4:2 result to the Coalition at that time. This time, the Democrats seat is up for grabs and this will either fall to Labor or maybe to the Greens. More likely, Labor.

In SA, Xenophon will clearly take the Democrats seat, leaving a 3:2:1 result.

In WA, the GC need to improve on a 42% result in 2004 when the LIBS very nearly took a 4th seat. Again, the 6th seat will likely go either Labor or Greens. Probabdly, Greens.

In Tasmania, the existing 3:2:1 status quo will remain as I do not see Bob Brown getting to 2 quotas. If he did, then it would go 2:2:2.

Assuming this, then the new Senate make-up would be:
LIBS (2) Tas, ACT
LAB +2 Vic, Qld
DEM (4) - wipeout Vic, Qld, SA. WA
GRN +3 WA, Tas, ACT
Xenophon +1 SA

New makeup
LIBS 39-2 = 37
LAB 28+2 = 30
DEM 4-4 = 0
GRN 4+3 = 7
FFP 1+0 = 1
Xenophon 0+1 = 1

This would take Labor to 37 (inc Greens), the Coalition to 37, and give the balance of power to Family First and Xenophon.

This is why the ACT has become the new Senate battleground. If lost to the LIBS, then the numbers will fall 37 each, but if not, then the Coalition will have 38, Labor + Greens 36, and the Coalition will have blocking power.

Either way, control falls not to the Greens but to Family First and /or Xenophon.