A lot has changed since my last rough & ready NPV calculation for COB so time for an update. Now it is difficult to find comparative projects where a PEA has been produced so I've relied on the following sources to construct my NPV:
1. Comments made by COB in their various presentations.
2. PEA produced by eCobalt dated 10/11/17
A, THE ASSUMPTIONS:
1. LOM = 10 years
2. Annual Production = 4000 tns payable Cobalt
3. LME Cobalt price = US$80,000/tn
4. AUDUSD = 0.80
5. C1 Cash Cost = A$13/lb (Before byproduct credits - if any)
6. Royalty = 7% (5% SR & 2% NSR)
7. CTR = 30%
8. CAPEX = A$250m
9. Sustaining Capital = 2% pa of CAPEX
10 Project Funding: Debt/Equity = 60%/40% at A$0.60
B. THE RESULTS:
1. EBITDA = A$229m
2. PAT = A$143m
3. FCF = A$163m
C. THE VALUATIONS:
1. FCF Valuation = A$163m x 10 times = A$1630m OR A$6.34 PFDS (Per fully diluted share)
2. Post tax NPV(8%) = A$842m OR A$3.28 PFDS
The current COB SP = A$0.65 so:
1. FCF Valuation = 10 times, and
2. NPV Valuation = 5 times
The usual way it works is the NPV Valuation applies before production and once in full production the FCF Valuation takes over (So long as LOM>10yrs)
I note from COB's project plan that:
1. A JORC update is expected in CY2018 Q1, and
2. The SS is expected in CY2018 Q2.
These ASX releases should spark further interest in COB and hopefully move SP higher. Also LME Cobalt price is moving upwards once again so hopefully this will provide a further boost.
Please note the above is all my stuff so treat with a high degree of skepticism and always DYOR before investing
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