COB 14.7% 8.6¢ cobalt blue holdings limited

CoB should be worth $4.5 Billion, page-5

  1. 154 Posts.
    Column 1 Column 2
    0 Co Price (AUD/ton) as of 02/02/2017 $49,130
    1 Co (ppm) 841
    2 Inferred Ore (Mt) 35.7
    3 Co (t) 30,024
    4 Total Co Asset Value   $ 1,475,064,381

    There's a big difference between 1000ppm and 841ppm (stated in prospectus). A difference of 19%. At these concentrations, every digit counts. Also, you didn't take into consideration the OPEX and CAPEX, which is probably greater than 60% of total costs, not to mention the depreciation of cash flows over time due to TVM.

    If management can get into production mode in a few years, based on the assumptions below, COB should have a value of around $368M.

    Column 1 Column 2
    0 Yrs till production 5
    1 Growth rate of Co price 20%
    2 Projected price of Co $122,251
    3 Mine life (yrs) 20
    4 Yearly Co output (t) 1,501
    5 Revenue/yr 183,521,610
    6 % All-in sustaining costs (AISC) 70%
    7 Free CF per year 55,056,483
    8 Discount rate 8%
    9 NPV $367,891,062

    All assumptions contingent on drill results and metallurgical assays. But it's way off from $4.5B.
 
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