Hi
@mirage2002I read comments on some of the latest tweets from high profile tweeters, and yes we have seen the effect on short term prices ....think I dodge coin etc. However I feel this is a much bigger issue than such things.
One thing most viewers see is the natural diminishing impact celebs have in the absence of actual substance data, always takes time but the world does have a natural order which tends to speak louder as data is presented. Enough on celebs, over rated at best.
Cobalt has been and is being thrifted where possible, that is a fact and makes sense, every business tries to make money by thrifting things everyday, this cobalt thrifting seems to have become a sexy trend word, but its not anything new, the electronics industry has tried to limit gold and silver mainly on cost, this just as an example and so goes cobalt on ethics and cost etc.
Two very important issues will play out for COB cobalt over the next few decades. The first is supply of acceptable ethical cobalt to meet demand, the second is the consistent supply at quantity of this product. You can put cobalt into various categories but in brief cobalt does the heavy lifting for mass batteries, things like trucks, buses, tankers, trains, static (any big battery anywhere) etc, in short a massive market.
If you are looking at say Tier 1 cities in China, the percentage of cobalt used in light short run vehicle will be small relatively, but it's not a game we are in. I am not concerned on demand and nor are Roskill, I never have been. Other concerns over time, for sure, in the past we all had concerns as any new project has, new material, new process, new tech, new resource, new location and all the regulatory issues that go with that.
I believe forecasters have the whole shift from fossil to renewable massively under estimated, yes even Roskill who are bullish as it is, the demand for all things associated with it will be truely mind boggling over the next decade, if I am right I will naturally win out on the markets rollercoaster.
Roskill's forecast says there was 141,000 tonnes of cobalt demand last year, this demand will rise to 270,000 tonnes by 2030. Imagine if you thought this was 10+ times understated, as I do.... but then that's just me.
I had hoped to upload this pdf to our site here, but not taking the upload, I will try later, in the meantime
this link may work.
Cheers
Phil.
