Eaglebird you may be right, but I doubt it. There are very important scientific reasons for believing that cobalt's future price will reflect longterm supply issues. Maybe in the last 12 months, some ups and downs in price are due to politics, etc. But in the future it will be due to supply. I'll have a go at giving some reasons (many others will give you better explanations, but I'll have a go).
A) To start with, cobalt is very rarely found at concentrations above 0.2% , even in the best resources. That is, even in the best resources cobalt is less than 2 kg per 1000 kg of material. Also, to get cobalt sulphate from this material, the extraction technique usually requires heating, pressure and acid to dissolve the cobalt compounds and make a liquid. Some companies may be able to extract without pressure, but their techniques may be patented. Nevertheless, it is an expensive metal to extract in the form that is needed for industry and batteries.
B) Because it is an active metal, it has several ionization states and reacts readily to form metallic compounds. That is why it is never found as pure cobalt in rocks and soil, instead it occurs only as a metallic coumpound. Also, that is why it is a very useful compound for renewable batteries which need to charge and discharge regularly. When a battery charges, the cobalt compound takes up electrons and changes to one of its ionization species. Then when the battery discharges, the cobalt compound changes form and releases the electrons which can be used to drive electric motors, mobile phones and other devices. Because cobalt-based batteries can carry a high charging density for their weight, it is a superior metal. There are from memory only 92 naturally-occuring elements and all ave been tried, but the evidence is that cobalt is ideal for renewable batteries. That is not to say that one day some genius will invent a new type of battery which is based on a totally different technology, but that day has not come, even though scientist have been working on this invention for many, many decades.
C) Australia is an old continent which is blessed with some of the best mineral resources. As a result of more than 150 years of exploration and drilling, there is an enormous amount that is known but the geology of prospective mineral deposits in this country. Many deposits were not mined because they were mainly investigated for other metals (eg gold) which was not found to be plentiful in those deposits. Now companies are reviewing the historic drilling data and finding cobalt resources are present in discarded tenaments. Even so, there are not enough cobalt deposits to meet the demand for the world-wide challenges of the renewable energy revolution.
Probably there are other reasons which others can add. My feeling is, get on board and enjoy the ride. Alternatively, buy some Telstra and hope the dividend gives you a return, because there is no capital gain to be had from Telcos in the forseeable future (for whatever reason). Best of luck.
