Cobalt price spike, page-6

"Something to be concerned about?"

The answer is no.

Safety aside, the two main issues with EV batteries are 'range' and 'longevity'.

With range, energy density is the key. Nothing beats nickel when it comes to energy density, however, it needs its mate, cobalt, for the stability. Sounds a bit like my marriage, actually. As such, NMC/NCA cathodes will continue to be the preferred choice in the auto industry. And it is a big reason why sales of NMC/NCA batteries are tipped to increase from 28% to 63% in the next 7 years. In other words, these batteries are going to capture and dominate market share. Battery-makers (including many in China) have already started moving away from LFP batteries to nickel-cobalt batteries. Even CATL has begun mass production of NMC811.

The Chinese Government had to remove its regulation on high-energy density EV batteries - as the tech was not developed enough to reach their requirements. I think the original requirement was 220Wh/kg for each battery system. LFP were around 120Wh/kg, with only NMC/NCA batteries capable of the required energy density (220Wh/kg).

Lower cost LFPs will mainly be confined to cheaper cars (manufactured in China) with shorter range and other vehicles - such as electric buses. Their upside is limited due to their low Wh/kg (NCA has greater than double the specific energy and NMC almost double). This was the last time I checked, so please DYOR to confirm that.

Longevity. Batteries contribute 40% of the cost of an EV, so they must last for at least 8 years (industry standard). Reducing or eliminating cobalt reduces the life of a battery. And replacing the battery is too cost prohibitive. You are better off buying a new car at that point.

Although there are ambitious targets out there, I hold the view that EVs will reach price/performance parity with pure-ICE vehicles in around a decade. In 10 years from now, EVs will dominate market share. 2020-2029 is expected to bring more technological innovation than the combined twenty years (2000-2019). The tipping point is predicted to be 2025. We will have a free cash flow producing mine (or several) by then. If you accept the EV thematic, then you need to accept that demand for nickel and cobalt is going to explode during this time.

The key sentence in the article you supplied is this one, "It was not clear to what extent Tesla intends to use LFP batteries, but the automaker has no plans to stop using its current NCA batteries, said one of the people".