Price target when supported by the event target is what I use to confirm the market reaction. I made a post on AUZ based on the chart technicals and you can see a very great announcement with the market gap up to euphoric heights and subsequently sold down right through the day and leading to much more subdues selling into a technical 10C level is where optimism was not matched by the follow on buyers.
With CLQ I don't know the history of the previous news with the initial 2016 big rally followed by another last year. If I were to guess how market operates, they are forward looking or in other words the speculation through buying is ahead of the 'event target' preceding the event. Buy rumor sell news type of occurence in simplistic terms. Again without piecing together what the anticipated news event on the Dec 2017 rally and failure, could it be the disappointment of delayed DFS the reason then the checking of the price falls leading into the CR?
Logically speaking I could foresee the price hoovering around the SPP mainly because CR is dilutive and replicated in almost every company doing it. Sometimes it is very accretive like raising to buy an asset/company. With the recent outside forces of the Trump tariffs causing so much market volatility with Chinese then on going Trump responses to the Chinese response back responding to Trump, if this idiot keeps responding into a race to the bottom of tariff controls of deficit or whatever he is trying to achieve, we (SP and holders) could be the collateral damage!
Thinking ahead, I can only say that RF is not a fool who simply let the market decide his fate pre and post SPP acceptance. He would be exploring ways to keep market confidence when such a condition arise like what we are experiencing this week and in particular on Friday. I am not privy to what he has in mind. They will have to work within the laws governing trading and news announcement.
If you ask yourself, would you be participating in the SPP below market price? Unless the brokerage makes it justifiable retail punters would be seeking to buy market at cheaper pricing? The CR phase coupled with the current market volatility entirely out of CLQ control makes it a challenging position to decide what to do. Technically I don't want to see $1.12 broken and that is just me. However I would like to continue to be able to bet with RF and his skills but not ant any cost.
If 1.12 breaks from next week aggressively and in this game nothing is assumed or a given for me through my journey, what would be the best decision. We are all different, have different risk tolerance and exposure. Therefore we will decide on our own set of personal circumstances. A sell/buy for me has nothing to do with losing or increasing confidence in CLO/RF. I'm at least only interested in capital gains and the least possible time experiencing drawdown.
Some anxious moments ahead so good luck to each of us retail holders.
CLQ Price at posting:
$1.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)