Cobalt supply insufficient for EV battery demand., page-5

Thank you again Bluesamurai: a very interesting interview but 36min long. In a nutshell Cobalt supply is to an extent inelastic, There won't be enough Cobalt to satisfy demand. It is an irreplaceable and strategic metal. Demand is surging.
My take from this video is that Cobalt Blue being a pure play Cobalt is really unique and will definitely have no issue finding customers and as a result financing. Let's just hope any takeover won't happen too fast. The PFS is due this coming week. More than ever i am staying long.
Here is a summary for those who do not have the time to see the video:
No country produces Cobalt as a primary product: in 95% of cases it is a by- product = Cobalt production can’t respond to normal rules of demand and supply. Increase in Cobalt demand will not justify opening new copper or Nickel mines unless combined economics ( Co + Nickel or Co + Copper) make sense. Cobalt is a bit like Silver = co/ by product.
Nickel class 1 is the only one good enough for EV- but represents only 1/3 of world Nickel production.
On another hand Lithium and Graphite are primary products.
VW : 1 million EV/ Y by 2025.

-John Petersen does not believe that Cobalt production will be sufficient for the anticipated demand( at 9.49 min).
Even Tesla lowest Cobalt content battery requires143gr/ Kwh battery capacity. Model S ( 100kwh) needs 14 kg of Cobalt.
-Cobalt is an absolutely essential material: Cobalt stabilize the others components and basically prevent explosions.
-NCM batteries: Nickel Cobalt Manganese: 1-1-1 (meaning identical amounts of Ni. ,Co and Mang) ( + Lithium+ oxygen) since mid 90ies, very stable . But now: 5-2-3 and 6-1-1 batteries coming up: they are going into production now, not in high levels: they are less stable: problems at low temp and deteriorate more quickly than 1-1-1.
Scientists do not believe 8-1-1 is going to happen on a production level for 7 to 10 years: right now it has stability, longevity problems and is very difficult to manufacture. Need an inert atmosphere to manufacture ! So what you would save in Cobalt cost , is spent on significant add processing costs.
-In the battery business it takes a decade from Eureka from a scientist to first commercialized product ! then another decade to performance optimized product . And another decade to cost optimized product.
-People say battery costs will go down because of economies of scale: it has happened partly thanks to automation. But for EV batteries, raw materials = 40% of the weight of the cell and 60 to 70% of the cost of the cell; once market demand increases a lot then it reaches a stage where prices of raw materials will go up and as a result EV batteries prices will go up not down.
Petersen think we are reaching that stage now. Lithium prices have gone up, Cobalt prices are up and Nickel is going up also. Two Cobalt projects coming up: Katanga is reopening its mine after 3 years of closure ( 30 000 ton/ years). Eurasian minerals ( 20 000ton). Refining only gets 75 to 80% of Cobalt metal produced a the mine.
-Now world production of Cobalt is 100 000 ton of refined Co/ y : 50% is used in irreplaceable industrial applications: jet engines, turbines, high speed steels, cutting tools, to take sulphur from diesel, making PET plastic ( bottles)… These users need the Cobalt and do not care of the price. Stable demand for the past 10-15y increasing a few % a year.
Remains 50 000T yearly for EV batteries and the growth is coming from this sector : over the past 10 year because of new or reopening African( mainly in DRC) copper mines there was an abundance of cobalt ( by product of copper) as these mines produced more than the world needed = cheap Cobalt at $10/pound and battery makers swooped in buying Cobalt cheap.
But for Petersen it wont be the case any longer.
In US Cobalt is a strategic metal and in China too now and more and more so .
Cobalt Refining : 50% refined in China and 50% elsewhere. In China 10K Tons used for industrial applications and balance 40K in batteries. For the rest of the world 40K T goes into industrial applications and only 10K ton in EV batteries !
In China it is political situation rather than an environmental one: gvt trying to do anything to improve air quality in mega cities.
With one Tesla battery you can make 100 E-bike !!
To follow J Petersen, check seekingalpha and type Petersen . Also miningpundits .com
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PS: @ mlives: thank you again for all your technical analysis on COB processes and more. Really useful. If COB requires a much lower Pressure and Temp to process the concentrate this should be reflected in the upcoming Capex.
( Also nice to see you made the same decision on a pure vanadium play. To me it is complementary to COB as it targets another market , fixed batteries ( + steel rebar of course). I bought i a few months back...