Actually, we can have a stab at estimating the % of Co in the concentrate.
The average grade for the 30mt is 467ppm. Reviewing the assays, generally speaking the grades are higher the higher the Cu content, so if the company is planning on a feedstock of 2% Cu, then a grade of 700 - 800ppm might be reasonable in the first two or three years.
Processing 3mtpa would thus process 3m x 0.08% = 2,400 tonnes
Which would yield at 90% recovery 2,160t, and mean the concentrate was 1.08% Co.
At the 27/4/11 prices, that metal would have been worth AUD20 x 2205lb x 2160t = AUD95m.
So how on earth the company came up with a MARGIN of $160m p.a. is beyond me! The metal, in its refined state, was only worth $95m and that is at a grade of nearly twice the JORC. Please, please don't tell me that I haven't taken NCo nuggets into account.
At today's prices the metal is only worth $72m.
The road transport and terminal costs have been estimated on this forum at around $82/t onto the ship. For 200,000t of concentrate that's $16.4m. Then there are the processing costs at Rocklands, shipping costs to the smelter/refinery, smelting cost at so many $$/tonne of concentrate and refining at so much per lb - plus a profit for OW.
IMO there is no way that the margin could ever be $805/t of concentrate. On 27/4/11 the concentrate only contained $486 of metal, $368 today. The sulphur credits are negligible, if anything, with sulphur at $70/t (that's per tonne of sulphur, not tonne of concentrate).
CDU Price at posting:
$1.47 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
