I used to be CCL holders, until its 20% drop, upon announcement. So, I got out, instead of buying more at $9 mark back in April. It was frustrating at the time, when you think how such famous beverage brand could lose so much profit over the past few years, when ASX keeps reaching record high.
Here's why
1. I was looking for catalyst, when CCA says in 2013. The profit drop could be reversed by growth opportunity in emerging markets, such as Indonesia and Fiji. Then, I realize CCA is just not good enough to capitalize on the opportunity. In comparison, Coca Cola volume sale in China rockets. Perhaps, affordability is an issue.
2. The situation in its main market, Australia is not improving. Except that a lot of investors rushed in to push CCL share price to $9.74 less than a week ago, thinking it's bargain.
3. Not many people are forward looking. They only look at the past record and say Coca Cola is a awesome brand and its performance is awesome, until 2013. So, they say "yep, the share price will go back"
4. When looking at coca cola around the globe. Its sale is declining in developed markets. Much of the growth is from emerging markets. Keep in mind, CCA is mostly exposed to Australia/NZ. So, only emerging market is Indonesia but its economy growth is lowest for almost 5 years.
Some investors prefer looking at the value of stock and not care about the share price. So do I but I got out, not because share price is plunging but I no longer find myself wanting to consume Coke. As I realize the share price is back to $9 mark again.
Is it a bargain again?
CCL Price at posting:
$9.15 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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