I know Baralaba is cashflow positive but COK as a whole isn't. Not even close. They still have heavy exploration and admin costs. That $40M from Mitsui for Woori didn't even make a dent in the quarterly this month - whoosh, it was gone.
The loan due end of year can be renewed or refinanced by another short term loan or raise equity on the market, lots of options.
Raising equity on market is not a realistic option at these prices. I mean, it is possible but the dilution would be horrendous.
Hopefully they can refinance until prices improve. But they need a catalyst for prices to improve, which is the trap MMX got into (albeit with much larger funds).
I would also like to see JFE take on a similar interest in Wonbindi as they have in Baralaba mine. Cutting COK's capex contribution from 90% to 62.5%, plus a cash injection from JFE, would be a huge weight off COK's shoulders.
Of course that means lower equity in the mine, but a bird in the hand is more than worth two in the bush in this case IMO.
Long-term followers will know this is the most bearish I've ever been on COK. Really hating SK right now. I am confident management will work something out and COK will end up in the same place but my personal holding looks like it will be more diluted than it should have been.
COK Price at posting:
20.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held