I had been expecting the two majors to at least consolidate, if...

I had been expecting the two majors to at least consolidate, if not even delist COK in a takeover, after the last recapitalisation.

Reasons being - they pretty much call all the shots anyway and theoretically will have to tip in further cash requirements;

One suspects the COK investment is likely to be a bit painful for Noble if marked-to-market, as opposed to whatever they have it on the books at ( more below ); and

Liberty looks like a private equity mob to me, and the private equity model is typically slice-and-dice, and relist after three years, take profit, move on.

However, I am now wondering if Noble has the appetite to tip more on via consolidation or a take over or in fact, any cash injections ?

The latest on the Noble-Iceberg - "Is this Enron Revisited ?" saga has the following open letter published by:

Michael Dee, who has been in the investment banking scene (ex Morgan Stanley CEO SE Asia, ex Senior MD of Temasek Holdings) for more than 30 years.


Key issues Mr Dee flags, as I see it:

1) the exact details of how Noble can justify the YanCoal valuation at at level over 30 times it’s market value, and

2) fully explain why what Noble calls “inventory sales” are not in fact just repos which should be shown as debt.

Fifth, Noble must focus on generating positive free cash flow from operations. Noble’s basic problem is you do not generate free cash flow from operations.

Yeah - I don't see losing cash all day long as a sustainable business operations. Time will tell. And I wonder what Noble have COK on their books at, given the Yancoal example ??

And yes - maybe this guy is sitting on a short position and just jawboning Noble down. But smoke-fire-Enron ? Time will tell.