Cheers now it is a lot clearer, You keep mentioning investing...

Cheers now it is a lot clearer, You keep mentioning investing but are actually describing trading. Your purchases on WHC were trades, not investments and were based on a short term view based on immediate results (and spot prices). This is fine, and to that extent I think myself (and the market) have largely priced in the current results and (given WHC's coal is contracted and not sold at spot) the less relevant spot price.

With your response 'why would I take the risk on this one at the moment?' - investing is not about 'this moment'. For me it is having a narrative based on as many data points as I can find, my own (and other professionals) research, and listening to other people (especially contrarians). From this I look at timeframes and I agree if I was like you and looking at something for a quick (high-CGT) trade (such as your previous WHC trades) then WHC is probably not it and over the next ~3 months may track sideways and may go lower. But I think WHC's balance sheet will continue to improve, they will continue with cost reductions and the macro view of coal will improve over the next 12-24 months. And given the position I am building in WHC is very close the current SP I am hoping to see significant returns over those 24 months.

And don't get wrong me wrong I do also trade, and in those cases I take a similar view to you and don't like to leave trading capital where it is not expecting imminent returns. Like YAL immediate after divvie announcement last year, lovely trade based on the markets tendency to over react. Or my recent trades in the precious metals space based on global macro stability. But with investing I aim for much larger gains (and lower tax) with multi-year holds by accumulating when others were panicking based on 'the moment' and waiting for the narrative to play out. I keep my trading and my investing very much separate.

Suffice to say I agree WHC is probably not a trade at the moment, but if you are building a position in WHC for larger long term profits in my opinion right now is a great time to be building that position.

GLTA,