"Cheers now it is a lot clearer, You keep mentioning investing but are actually describing trading. Your purchases on WHC were trades, not investments and were based on a short term view based on immediate results (and spot prices)"
I agree, but if you look at those results above, it is near impossible to predict years out what WHC earnings will be. In 2019, could one have predicted a $500m loss in 2 years? or a $2.6b gain in 4 years? This is why its a trading stock to me.
"With your response 'why would I take the risk on this one at the moment?' - investing is not about 'this moment'. For me it is having a narrative based on as many data points as I can find, my own (and other professionals) research, and listening to other people (especially contrarians). From this I look at timeframes and I agree if I was like you and looking at something for a quick (high-CGT) trade (such as your previous WHC trades) then WHC is probably not it and over the next ~3 months may track sideways and may go lower. But I think WHC's balance sheet will continue to improve, they will continue with cost reductions and the macro view of coal will improve over the next 12-24 months. And given the position I am building in WHC is very close the current SP I am hoping to see significant returns over those 24 months."
I agree with you, investing is looking at the future (1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years etc). And whilst I agree, WHC does have a better balance sheet than in the past, once again, I cannot predict the earnings (or costs, or government royalties, etc etc in the same time period). You could be right, this could well and truly be the bottom.
It's good to have a proper discussion, without resorting to petty claims, so thanks for engaging politely.
WHC Price at posting:
$5.83 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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