Look, it's pretty clear what's going on here. The Indonesian government wants more money for their coal, plain and simple. They've seen their margins squeezed by the market, and now they're trying to strong-arm buyers with this HBA benchmark. But they're not Queensland, are they? They're dealing in mostly lower-grade thermal coal, and they don't have the same market dominance. Frankly, they're trying to punch above their weight, and their lack of sophisticated market understanding is showing. Buyers will just go elsewhere. It's basic economics. Second world economy for a reason.
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Now, for Aussie exporters, especially those selling mid-to-high-grade thermal, this could be a bit of a win. If Indonesia sticks to its guns with this HBA nonsense, buyers will start looking for reliable alternatives. That's where WHC/YAL come in. They got the quality everyone needs, and if Indonesia prices itself out of the market, we could see a nice little bump in demand. Of course, it all hinges on whether the Indonesians can actually enforce this thing. And let's be honest, trying to tell China what to pay? That's a big dick swing move. But if they manage to create enough headaches, it could open up some doors.
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