I was looking at the current position as at 1 April. Not forecasted 2026.
Nice modelling but did you take into consideration the fact that the FCF for the Dec half should have been $363m (stamp duty) less in FCF.
They actually delayed payment of the stamp duty into the March qtr and to me I don't like the fact that Creditors are greater than debtors to the tune of $650m. They could've paid suppliers earlier? What's FCF then?
Once upon a time Debtors exceeded and at the very least cancelled each other out as at the end of December Go and have a look at the last 3 Financial reports for the half ending 31 December.
With your cash costs and royalties (weighted average) you can't just divide as an average. The weighting is 70 met/30 thermal. Also the royalties for QLD operate differently. For example, QLD royalties are calculated progressive rates on a per tonne basis. NSW is calcualted on a $ value (around 10%). That's my understanding.
Also where's the deferred payment of A$800m on the second anniversay (Apr 2026). Don't worry about contingent.
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