WHC whitehaven coal limited

Thanks for the feedback. Nice modelling but did you take into...

  1. 1,412 Posts.
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    Thanks for the feedback.

    Nice modelling but did you take into consideration the fact that the FCF for the Dec half should have been $363m (stamp duty) less in FCF. -
    Im looking at FY26. Looking backwards doesn't really interest me. Although it does appear i have overlooked the stamp duty. Thx.

    They actually delayed payment of the stamp duty into the March qtr and to me I don't like the fact that Creditors are greater than debtors to the tune of $650m. They could've paid suppliers earlier? What's FCF then? - Again, not particularly interested in past. Mining companies are absolute dogs when it comes to payment. They regularly push out payment terms to 90 days plus. Unfortunately i suspect this is what whitehaven may be doing as well, but we cant know for sure. Looking at their cash, i really dont think they have an issue in being able to pay people.

    Once upon a time Debtors exceeded and at the very least cancelled each other out as at the end of December
    Go and have a look at the last 3 Financial reports for the half ending 31 December. I dont have a good answer for this, but youre correct in the observation, it has jumped up in the last half, and may be worth monitoring but im not concerned here given the discrepancy relative to the cash on hand/balance sheet.

    With your cash costs and royalties (weighted average) you can't just divide as an average. The weighting is 70 met/30 thermal.
    Also the royalties for QLD operate differently. For example, QLD royalties are calculated progressive rates on a per tonne basis. NSW is calcualted on a $ value (around 10%). That's my understanding. - You're partly correct in the royalty regime is different across the states. Neither state gives a shit if it is thermal or met coal. Coal is coal and its per tonne. The only slight discrepancy is for NSW which charges slightly differently based on if its OC or UG.

    The comment i have for NSW as an example - NSW, 10.8% for open cuts, 9.8% for UG. Production close enough to 50/50 OC to UG so used royalty rate of 10.3. Narrabri only underground and all NSW practically thermal.
    QLD is tiered over a few levels but im not typing them all out here but its 7% sub $100, and 30% above $225/tonne.
    Youre also correct that you just cant divide the two normally, hence weighted. But looking forward production is close enough to 50/50 nsw/qld that for my napkin math its enough. There is forecast slightly more from NSW (16mt, vs 14mt for QLD). I didnt warrant the pedantacism here.


    Also where's the deferred payment of A$800m on the second anniversary (Apr 2026). Don't worry about contingent - I have left this out. Net debt at 31st Dec was $1B (AUD). They owe $500M (USD)in April '25 and another $500M (USD) in April 26. They have just received $1.08B (USD) for selling 30% of blackwater so I (lazily perhaps) have just scratched these out. They can put the $1.08B aside in a kitty and cover those payments to BHP.

    All said and done I may have had my net debt figure $363M too low as I overlooked stamp duty, but Im looking to FY 26, and i expect them to make more the $363M in the 2H 25 easily enough such that the FY26 assumption shouldnt be too far off the mark in this area.

 
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