Matt WarderGood Afternoon Coal Traders! Here's a weekly coking...

Matt WarderGood Afternoon Coal Traders! Here's a weekly coking coal market summary for paid subscribers... Coking coal markets softened over the week as demand concerns deepened, particularly from Indian buyers facing the seasonal onset of the monsoon and continued pressure on steel margins. The Argus-assessed Australian premium low-volatile (PLV) hard coking coal FOB price declined by $1.75/t over the week, closing at $189/t, while second-tier coal fell more steeply by $2.30/t to $146.40/t FOB Australia. In the CFR India market, premium hard coking coal prices dropped by $1.80/t to $202.45/t, and second-tier coal slumped $2.40/t to $159.80/t, reflecting muted buying interest from both end-users and merchant cokeries. A few mills expressed interest in small lots, but there was no urgency, suggesting spot demand may remain thin in the near term. China’s market remained quiet, with the PLV price flat at $170/t CFR and domestic auctions failing to clear amid weak procurement appetite. A failed Russian K10 tender and softening low-sulphur domestic prices further underscored the lackluster sentiment. On the futures front, SGX coking coal contracts showed a mixed close. The benchmark June ’25 contract (U7M25) rose by $1.25 to $187.25/t, supported by short-term positioning. However, longer-term contracts from January to April 2026 were under pressure, with declines ranging from $0.75 to $3.75/t. Notably, December ’26 (U7Z26) rebounded sharply by $3.25 to $219.75/t, suggesting renewed optimism in the far curve. As India heads into the monsoon and Chinese spot interest remains tepid, the market’s near-term trajectory appears bearish. Participants now look to Q3 demand signals and potential production guidance from major miners to determine pricing direction. On the equity side, the bleeding mostly stopped this morning during AMR's call as the crew acknowledged a rough Q1 and continued weakness in global steel markets, while also expressing a (slight) modicum of optimism toward the next couple of quarters. AMR is at the bottom of its volatility based range (chart below) and is probably worth a flier for a trade over the coming weeks, as coking coal stocks tend to bottom in May. Similarly, we have been pounding the table on CNR, whose report was not nearly as bad as price action would let on, and we will continue to buy on weakness. Working on some more commentary on the BTU/Anglo debacle...watch for a piece in the coming days. And in the meantime HAGW! -MW

Just the same shit each day, each week. Get an effinv move on coal!