You see China has major power outages with coal supply problems.
This news follows reports from McCloskey that Indian coke makers are negotiating to purchase spot cargoes of Australian hard coking coal at about $215/t and that significant spot cargo was sold at $210/t FOB into India last week.
BHP-Billiton Mitsuibishi has just declared force majeure on its Qld coal operations due to recent torrential rains
BMA produces 55Mtpa of premium hard coking coal market or ~45% of the global seaborne market of 120Mtpa (total coking market including lower quality coals is approx 220Mtpa)
According to Platts, Xstrata has started the JFY08 negotiations by tabling an offer of ~US$210/t FOB for Oaky Creek coal to "panicked" buyers who will pay whatever it takes to keep blast furnaces running
Upside risk to consensus forecasts of US$140/t FOB for JFY08 negotiations
Best leverage is Macarthur (90% coking, mostly LV PCI), Resource Pacific (60% coking, all semi-soft) and Felix Resources (50% coking, mix of LV PCI and semi-soft), while BHP leverage is ~10% coking coal
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