this stock is so wildly mispriced its almost comical - both in...

this stock is so wildly mispriced its almost comical - both in terms of its earnings power and how other ASX coal stocks are trading. in the Dec half, Stockton put up $37mm of EBITDA (NZD) at 100% basis ref a $203/t NZD ASP, ie $65/t of EBITDA and thus ~$138/t NZD of cash cost. Export prices are going to be closer to $450-$500/t in 1H and prob head higher for 3Q as well given lag. But even at $450/t and assuming costs go up more as highlighted by management ($150/t?), Stockton alone will do $150-180mm of EBITDA (meaning BRL, at 65% of this, gets $95-120mm).

Today the adjusted EV is what, $185mm Kiwi? (ref $1 AUD). So essentially the export biz alone pays the entire lawsuit (assuming its lost), AND all residual debt at BT mining, AND leaves over something for a 1H div. Oh and then in 2H we prob get higher prices for at least 3Q given the pricing lag. God forbid prices stay higher for longer...

Can someone please tell me how this isn't the next TER. This should be a $2 stock right now.