My unease at some of the visibility over production figures can be summed up by taking Bluff as a case study. I am *not* trying to talk this down, I have done the work on this company because I think/thought it deserved it. Here is what I've found:
11 April 2022: announcement regarding first coal mined at Bluff, reveals steady-state target of 80-100kt ROM per month from July 2022
10 May 2022: Morgans Coal Conference presentation moves the Bluff steady-state target to Q4 2022 (this was only one month on from the past announcement - and wasn't market price sensitive?).
14 June 2022: announcement regarding first coal railed from Bluff. Noted that ~38,000 tonnes of Bluff PCI were booked for shipment by end of June
4 July 2022: announcement regarding first coal shipped from Bluff. This was ~35,000 tonnes. Gerhard said in the release "we see this mine achieving steady state production later in this quarter" (i.e. Q3, not Q4 as the Morgan's presentation stated). The announcement went on to say steady-state would be "by the end of next month", i.e. August.
28 July 2022: quarterly report reaffirms that Bluff will is expected to reach steady-state "in the September quarter".
30 August 2022: announcement regarding second shipment of Bluff PCI, of ~40,000 tonnes. Release states they should reach steady-state "early in the next quarter" but does flag wet weather and labour impacts having "impact on short-term production".
14 October 2022: Quarterly report flags weather and labour impacts, notes "steady state production is now anticipated later in the December quarter". Also flags a third vessel shipment planned for late October.
21 October 2022: capital raise presentation notes "next vessel imminent" from Bluff (the third mentioned above).
23 November 2022: AGM presentation on Bluff states "two vessels shipped with three more planned in the next two months"
20 January 2023: announcement regarding wet weather impacts flags that Bluff had been impacted. Also notes that on 13 January the third shipment of ~38,000 Bluff PCI was completed and that the delay was due to another party. Expects fourth shipment to be loaded onto a vessel "before the end of January 2023".
31 January 2023: Quarterly report flags "production at Bluff has been impacted by extraordinary wet weather". Also notes that the fourth vessel of 40,000 "was delayed till mid-February (...) due to another third party delay. A fifth vessel of 34,000 is scheduled to follow later in February and a larger vessel in April". It then reaffirms Bluff's steady state target of 80-100kt but doesn't say when they expect this by - which I think is very meaningful.
27 February 2023: CEO announcement finishes with Jorss stating "...as we head towards steady-state production at our first three new mines".
So, what do I take from this?
can't blame management for the weather,
can't blame management for the third-party shipping delays,
they have tried to keep the market up to date with a changing situation
BUT:
whatever the reason, steady-state estimates at Bluff have moved from July to December, back to August, then early in the September quarter, then later in the December quarter, and as of February, they are no longer giving a target.
If I read between the lines, this suggests they are struggling with Bluff. Cc: @hagetaka, @FFailings FYI.
BCB Price at posting:
27.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)