colonization and takeover

Wow, didn't I lose lots of money today. I heard a rumour of this on the weekend but don't generally post rumours....and thought this one untrue

Not trying to be emotive but its difficult to deny that Olam's decision defies common enterprise logic and can only be explained as a Singaporean company which wants to 'own' the entire game and using a 'forever logic' (not short term).

Reading their stuff, they appear to have a long term goal of using Aus to take over almonds in the US, which they currently have almost no interest. Almonds are HUGE business in US but clearly the ego of land poor singapore is not small.

I'm not usually a takeover person, but clearly Olam can't do what they want to, without taking over SHV. Sure they can do everything themselves...but these guys obviously want to colonize, dominate rather than 'allocate capital.'

By 2013, SHV will likely have at least 15 000 acres of orchards. Olam, in a fire sale paid about $300 million for their 30 000ish acres. Comparing like for like valuations on acres in not really worth doing as the CAPX on almond improvements is more significant

On Olam's colonisation logic, I think they will pay whatever it takes for SHV, which probably won't need to be much

SHV looks to be earning 40 cents EPS at least through 2013, at which time, the newly planted orchards will begin to contribute (that's where current big CAPX has been going for no immediate pay off)

Would not be surprised if SHV never earns below round 40 cents even with lose of contract......but it all will depend on Aussie dollar, almond price and water....

Market hates uncertainty so stock price could do anyting....$2 anyone?