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Fangk

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26/03/24

10:33

Post #: 73058324
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Originally posted by EWexplorer: ↑

@Fangk

This ARX chart is typical of a heavily oversold stock. The SP goes lower and lower into heavily oversold, then flattens and goes lower again so the MACD (trend) actually rises as the speed of SP decline has decreased ... so what you want to see is a rising MACD cycle against the declining SP.

It's about the speed and volume of the decline (as in the moving averages that form the MACD) It's maths!

Normally the first sign of a turn is a small increase in volume, like with ARX ... then as people become convinced the turn is real the MACD crosses up through the zero line which is where there's a noticeable jump up in SP ... ARX is days to a week or two away from this. This normally happens when the SP crosses up through the 50MA (which is where some bot programmes can kick in).

Have a look at BPH and compare ... they have a similar chart but a few days behind right now ... which MAY confirm the turn the next day or two. The volume should increase if so.

Not all turns are like this ... some can go waaaay more heavily oversold if shorters and financiers (towards a raise) get involved - but the concept is the same, however the interpretation is a little different. It's seldom as similar as ARX : BPH ... just both these stocks don't have bots messing with them, shorters involved, and are currently unloved at about a similar level. As in the long money just dries up, they don't get to exhaustion (which is a different chart turn trend), the interest just goes to zero then ONE DAY there's a hint of life, like Friday last week for ARX.

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Thanks mate. I am not much of a chart person, but your analysis matches my gut feeling. Hope we all see the upside rerate upon finishing this EOFY sale. Fundamentally Brian Ward has to deliver something positve to make this change possible. Cheers

ARX Price at posting: 57.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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