I don't know for sure but I suspect that the risk finance does not get approved is not significant. The question will be how much dilution, but everyone should be expecting some, however I suspect our bargaining position is pretty good:
- The macro conditions, are good on two fronts - Lithium as a commodity is undersupplied, keeping prices inflated, and downstream of us, users are looking for lithium with green credentials they can align to their product branding (especially if you're a European carmaker who has fudged emission results)
- Possibly speculative development of a global mica trade aside, we've got a relatively cheap to run process (albeit commercially unproven I acknowledge) that will produce industry leading quality product (eventually, subject to commissioning, given the test results from the pilot plant were toward the 100% end of the carbonate battery grade (99.5%+)) with industry leading environmental credentials including low water usage/emissions, linking back to point 1. I'll admit I can't recall the Lithium hydroxide grades though.
- The macro conditions for our by-products are also good - whether it is the geopolitical pressure on the US to secure critical minerals like caesium, or, as we saw from recent updates, general thirst in abu dhabi locally for potash w/ 150% of it under LOI per the Feb 2022 operating update (not sure on amorphous silica status off the top of my head though)
- We are cashed up position relatively speaking, enough to not be sweating at the negotiating table and in a pinch I'm sure we could flog off another licence were we being squeezed on a convertible note again - but I think this extremely improbable right now.
I'm assuming many people are thinking the above but not sure - to be honest I think the upcoming FEED results - new capex and revised NPV - might be more important that finance and the FID, and I'm also assuming tactical suppression of the current price. Maybe. I don't know. I own a gold explorer that released super high grade results with anticipated 96% leach recovery this week and it went down 10% on an already terrible mcap so I have no idea about how the share market works to be frank.
In any case this is a long way of saying my monthly pay cycle comes around on Monday and I'd like to get a last couple of grand of shares (a 'hold' till then). I hope we pop off shortly (who knows though) and I hope everyone has got the amounts in your portfolios you're comfortable with. I'm a touch excited.
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