comex paper market, page-2

To clarify these charts for those not familiar with CFTC COT
- open interest is active counterparty contracts of 100 ounces each
- higher participation is more value at risk

(using aggregated classifications)

AUG2011
1.035M open interest = 103.5 Moz = $194.2Bn mkt cap
Lg Spec net long 8:1 (ratio)
Sm spec net short 1:1 (net zero position)
Commercial net short 1.8:1
Commercials are 56% of the market

compare with

APR2014
614.6K open interest = 61.5Moz = $80.5Bn mkt cap
(down 40% in participation)
Lg spec net long 3.5:1
Sm spec net short 1:1 (net zero position)
Commercial net short 1.5:1
Commercials are 58% of the market

My guess is speculation is moving into undocumented/unreported derivatives with less oversight.

(as done for most asset classes IMO)