I have been getting a bit narky since the AGM and the share price performance. I don't think this has been posted before but I think all holders can take a bit of comfort in some of the commentary.
"...Sirtex Medical Limited - Base case is low risk; how underlying earnings & DCF are not dependent upon clinical trial success
UBS earnings growth outlook & FCF is not tied to clinical trial outcomes
At CY17 SRX enters a pivotal phase of clinical trial data release. Given low probability of forecasting trial outcomes; UBS forward estimates do not consider trial success or failure. UBSe near-term earnings outlook relies upon a 'base case' where potential addressable market (salvage & non-resectable liver dominant mCRC market) is ~400k SIRT (SIR-Spheres Y-90) microsphere doses annually, yet currently ~3% penetrated. Trial failure will not disrupt UBSe; success will influence sentiment and perpetuity growth rates, but we flag practical limitations as capping FCF & DCF expansion. Using FCF from our base case implies a DCF of $39ps; with SRX expected return of 30% to UBS PT.
Clinical trial success offers upside; impact of failure more moderate/sentiment?
Valuation: $39, Buy rating unchanged
Trial failure or success will translate as either neutral or positive to longer-term estimates, with limited near-term bearing on FCF, though success will influence perpetuity growth rates in UBS DCF."
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