This is Mr Lincoln Augustus, first second cousin of...

This is Mr Lincoln Augustus, first second cousin of Holymagiman

It is 1030 am on another lazy Monday morning here in Jamaica and we are just sitting back here doing what we are doing because there just doesnt seem to be any much more that we should rather be doing than what we are already doing. The weather is turning a wee bit and there are those clouds in the sky with just a faint spitting of the rain.

And so we sit back and watch the weather and smoke our smokes and drink the Red Stripes talk the talk of things big and small and tarry over a delightful breakfast of some spicy jambalaya and all is well with the world.

And the storm that Holymagiman saw coming appears to be gathering up to perfection, and that is what we are talking about right now, because things are slowly falling into place nicely.

Baboo Runchik drew our attention to that report today on the Excellence in Oil & Gas Conference in Sydney and it made for some very interesting reading, so we thought we would just go over a couple of pointswith you.

Firstly, some thoughts on the Coal Seam Gas

1. There are 1P reserves of 3PJ, 2P reserves of 381PJ and 3P reserves of 2153PJ

2. Importantly, ALL these reserves are coming only from PEL 16

3. No coal seam reserves have YET been booked in PEL 13 and PEL 426

4. WYAN-E1 is in PEL 13 and is flowing very well, and is flowing WITH NO WATER. The importance of this needs to be stressed, as it alleviates a lot of the problems associated with water disposal. As has been stated previously, this could well be a Horseshoe Canyon type of structure.

Next, thoughts on the Conventional Gas

1. As everybody is aware, Kingfisher has reached total depth of 2090m and has identified a 30m of net pay, with the well still encountering gas bearing zones at total depth.

2. So the family feels that drilling deeper with a bigger rig in the next conventional well (?MacKeller) will most likely show even better results.

3. The lowest 3.7m of net pay flowed almost pure methane at the rate of 2.7 million scfd

4. Holymagiman has been dreaming (!!) that another pay area is being tested right now, but Holymagiman dreams a lot, as a good Jamaica Numba One is most conducive to good dreaming.

5. For those who wonder why results are slow in coming forth, the reasons are given, namely that testing of additional zones is now in process , to determine thefollowing:

a) reservoir characterisation of each interval

b) determine the best completion method for production drilling

c) understand potential open hole flowing capability

So, soon, all will be revealed, and it is just a matter of patience, which is most easy for us, as all we do is sit in the sun and smoke the smoke and lazily watch the days crawl by.

6. Then the report states (AGAIN) that there is a possibility that Kingfisher, Mackellar & Mackellar north are all the same structure. For those who are unaware of what this is all about, we can summarise it very simply by saying that if all three are interconnected , as suggested, then we are looking at an extremely enormous conventional gas field here, with a P50 of 286PJ and a P10 of 2765PJ. Huge and totally mind boggling, to say the very least, and this alone will make any previous calculations of Metgascos value totally out of date.

7. It has to be noted here that the total estimates of conventional gas in PEL 16 is a PP50 of 467PJ and a P10 of 4582PJ

8. The NEW figures released for conventional gas in PEL 13 are almost as good as in PEL 16, with P50 of 299Pj and a P10 of 3219PJ. It should be noted here that Dryaaba and Rappville are both expected to be almost as huge as Mackeller North, which, if all goes well, will be a mighty big field.

Those Molopo boys sure did not see this coming

9. Even more startling are the conventional gas estimates released for PEL 426, where the P50 is 672PJ and the P10 is 7371PJ, with five very large targets at Coaldale, Banyabba, Kungala, Camira and Orara. PEL 426 appears to have even more prospects for conventional gas than PEL 16 and PEL 13 put together.

It sure looks like those Molopo boys did not see this one going.

10. So, from the presentation today, the family is beginning to see why Mr David Johnson was so excited when he talked about a major gas discovery back on 30th November 2009. It looks like the management is being very restrained in their comments, but this presentation today has made the family look at Metgasco in a totally new light.

Metgasco appears to be sitting on a very very big conventional gas field, and the family will be over the moon if half or even a quarter or even one sixteenth of what we expect of Metgasco eventuates.

11. Baboo seems to think that Metgasco is shaping up as the BEST gas play in New South wales, but the family cannot comment on that, as Baboo spends most of his earthly hours shuffling coal around to the housewives and the rest of his time smoking the smoke, and he is not, by any yardstick, to be considered to know anything about anything. Holymagiman appears to agree with him, but again, what can anyone sane say of Holymagiman's thoughts without appearing to be insane.

And so we have to leave now, as we have to run down to the fields to replenish things for the next couple of days.

Blessing of the Lord
MLA