comment from rob

Comment from rob:


http://www.gippslandltd.com/upload/docs/130527_Sale_of_Stellar_Resources_Shareholding.pdf

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/42362/stellar-resources-phillipcapital-bullish-on-heemskirk-tin-42362.html

We calculate that the Heemskirk project has a value of over $160m. We assume that SRZ sells a 30% stake which finances their equity needs. This gives a valuation of 52c/share for SRZ, which we risk adjust to 37c.

Investment View

- We assume that SRZ is able to sell a 30% project stake for 90% of our valuation, which provides SRZ with the equity funding required to complete the project. However, we expect SRZ to raise some working capital soon.

- Our revised valuation is now 37c/share.

Project Value raised

- Our previous valuation assumed a mining inventory of 10Mt at a diluted grade of 0.95% Sn. This gave a valuation for the Heemskirk project of $62m.

- We now use the Resource estimate as the basis for our valuation, and this gives a valuation of $160m, after tax but before gearing. Some of the increase in value is due to our revised commodity price assumptions.

41,117,649 bit over 18 percent so Gips would be worth about 30.4 million it they held onto to it.

However i would expect a upgrade on Stellar and Heemsirk in a one to three weeks time which will boost this number. Plus it is a kingmaker stake that if Stellar had sold as part of getting funding they could have got a multiple of the joke amount Gip are getting now $1.8 million!

It is possible that the decimal place in the wrong place but why sell the stake now when in a couple of weeks it will be worth more and why not put it on the market for multiple parties to have a sniff at?

I say a kingmaker stake as what the betting the thirty percent plus Gips percent 19 of stellar could be sold off (to one party) rather than the project directly? I wonder if this has been on the cards since the unexplained turnover in January?.

http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1918218&msgid=11193509

If this was all going to one party we could quickly looking at a controlling interest.

Wonder if SRZ are going to track down this mysterious party and offer them a cheeky three or four million for the Stellar shares as that would be the logical move (a bit like offering the shares for Stellar to buy back in the first place).

Maybe if Gip had not been dumping Stellar shares recently they would have got more money for the remaining shareholding of course, which is too tiny to make much difference to Gip.

Ironic i have just about scrapped the money together to have a nibble at Stellar and everything is suddenly up in the air again. Maybe i should hold off as Sears who is close to the board is talking about 4 cents Lol.

Surprised at the lack of interest here at recent developments, when it needed (some) shareholders here and at Gip (and eventually the Stellar board) to fight off a previous attempt to get Stellar on the cheap?

P.s i would recommend people to save any posts i make in case i or my posts get disappeared.