Industry volumes indicators declined further in April, building on the negative momentum seen in Q1 CY09. Container ports volumes fell at a faster rate than last month, after showing some signs of stabilisation in March. Car imports recorded another significant fall, although the rate of decline was slightly slower, while coal receivals at Port of Newcastle dropped for a third consecutive month.
Weighted average industry volume growth was -12% in April, made up of the following:
1) Container throughput at the four major ports was -7%, with imports -7%
2) Coal receivals at Port of Newcastle were down 10%
3) Car imports fell 35%
Weakening volumes during April pushed weighted industry growth for Asciano’s FY2009 year-to-date to -3%. This compares to -8% growth in the March quarter as reported by Asciano. Management guidance of EBITDA growth benefits from a turnaround in the grain rail division, pricing growth in intermodal rail, and greater haulage distances for the coal rail division; partly offset by a weak ports result. DCF uses 10% pre-tax WACC and 3.0% terminal growth.
dyor
AIO Price at posting:
$1.18 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
