@nippy, if we choose the perfect timeframe to illustrate a point, it can support the narrative but does not actually reflect the whole truth.
You can see the long term chart on Copper below, which you will find that Copper did nothing between March 2011 (peak) and March 2021, in other words, it took a full decade to return to its 2011 peak.
All Time View
COPPER Charts and Quotes — TradingViewAnd take a look at what AUD Gold did between 2011-2021 as similar period comparison.
Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.comOver the same period March2011 ($1563)-March2021 ($1701), US Gold delivered 8.8% return, better than Copper, but that period was tough for Commodities.
All time view
GOLD Charts and Quotes — TradingViewThis is why I said that overextended Buy and Hold can tend to produce suboptimal return outcomes.
As I have often suggested, we should pick the period that is best to invest in the right asset class until it no longer delivers. It does mean Time the Market to an extent.
If one chose to invest in Gold in Oct 2008 upon GFC, you could have picked it up at $723, and 3 years later it would have fetched $1714 for a 237% return over 3 years!
One could also have picked up Gold in April 2000 after the dot.com crash for $273 and ride to $973 in 2008 for a 356% gain over 8 years.
Copper delivered 620% from Mar2000 to April 2025 over 25 years. So in contrast to Gold, that was not spectacular.
And if you noticed closely, Copper's big rise was from March 2000 to 2011, and since 2011, Copper price stagnated and grew modestly. Not great if one had bought after the big rise, but that's not the case with Gold which only grew from strength to strength unabated.
All time view
COPPER Charts and Quotes — TradingViewFinally, one can't invest in Copper ETF because there is none. One can only invest in Copper stocks. But as I often explained, miner stocks are not the same as their underlying commodity price because you have company specific risks.
Your copper junior can do a 2-3x bagger and if not sold, it could lose up to 90pc of its value from the peak- a very common experience across many junior miners including junior gold mining stocks.
IMO AUD Gold is amongst the best to hold without fear of any company specific risks due to incompetent management, it has delivered 811% over the past 21 years.
A $10k investment in June25 2004 at A$568/oz would have provided one with 17.6 oz Gold that is worth A$91,115 today @A$5177/oz- this equated to a compound rate of 11.1% per annum - you may not think this is spectacular but you need to remember that it is over an extended period covering bull and bear phases of the gold market.
Over the same timeframe, BHP delivered 6.7% pa compound rate (ex-div), so with divvy included it could match or slightly below AUD Gold.
The difference is this: Arguably the best days of BHP is over (as company move higher in market cap, its stock price growth can only diminish) while the best days for Gold is ahead.
Unlike Copper, Platinum, Palladium and other industrial metals including Silver, Gold is not beholden to Economic Activity.
Unlike these industrial metals and the companies that produce them, Physical Gold benefits not suffers from geopolitical and trade disorders and supply chain shocks and inflation.
We are now at the Cycle when we can expect economic bust, not economic recovery/boom, so Gold is the go to Asset over this Fourth Turning period of immense uncertainty.
