One thing lost on the “perma-bulls” pounding the opportunity table is this: yes, intra-cycle corrections and bear markets within expansions are typically dips to buy. But within every bull market, there is One High Not to Buy — the final high before the economy tips into contraction.
After that final high, the first big pullback often lures in the last professional bulls — trapped by cognitive dissonance, familiarity bias, confirmation bias, and outcome bias — along with retail investors gripped by FOMO.
Based on my analysis, for anyone with an investment horizon longer than a few weeks, this is One Dip Not to Buy. The violent plunge in equities last week was likely not a buying opportunity — it was likely the start of a sustainable bear market.
