Yields are up every day this week by a cumulative 0.458 percentage point, the largest four-day yield gain since March 18, 2020.
Meanwhile, the dollar weakened nearly 1.6% on the day.
From Evercore ISI: "Yields higher, currency lower is common in EM. We saw this in the UK during the Truss debacle. But it is highly abnormal for the US: there are only four other episodes in the last 30 years in which the dollar depreciated more than 1.5% with the 30 year yield up more than 10bp."
"This is not about stagflation: inflation break-evens have fallen."
"It reflects evaporating US growth exceptionalism and the reduced attraction at the margin of dollar assets for reserve purposes amid erratic US decision-making..."
The White House has clarified that tariffs on China have increased to 145%. When Trump said on Wednesday that he couldn't imagine raising tariffs on China beyond 125%, he wasn't including the additional 20% tariff that had already taken effect. https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1910391974454002173
....what I said about (this) has come true.
....Europeans and Asians are ditching US Treasuries and the US dollar as they begin to hold US in contempt. As America ditches globalisation, it is headed for Isolationism.
....Now we understand that America First is self serving America at the expense of all others, but to live in a world alienating its friends and foes, it better not be dependent on them.
....now Trump would better hope that the bond vigilantes (across the world) had stopped in their tracks after his tariff pause announcement. The US long term yields continue to move higher despite his pause albeit moderately, reminding him that they (bond vigilantes) are there to 'discipline' him from any irrational tariff outburst.
...US market heading lower after the tariff pause announcement. A dead cat bounce.
