Just a Nightmare of A 'Child' Playing Battleship: The Trade Nuclear War Edition. All Will be Fine After the Anxieties
..the best outcome for markets would be for bond traders to pressure Team Trump into complete backflip on tariffs. Already we have Trump indicating preparedness to extend the 90 day tariff pause if necessary.
The Gruelling Thriller: A Longer and Winding Road towards the Abyss
...the middle ground outcome for markets would be for both Team Trump and China to remain resolute on doing nothing more and seeing inflationary forces seething through into the US consumer psyche, ushering the US economy into a recession after the 90 days end. We can expect American consumers to front-end all their buying before the tariffs set in, and the US economy goes into full blown abyss after the tariffs come into effect.
The Market Nuclear Option: Pass the Point of Control
....the worst outcome for markets would be a full blown US bond crisis when long term yields continue to move higher on continued US Treasuries dumping and dollar collapse, passing the stage when even a full retract of tariff policy will not save America. And then the Fed steps in...
The bond vigilantes, ironically, may be the ones to save America and the World
