Hi Holdonman et al,
In hindsight, what we've witnessed in the last 6 weeks (i.e. since the Sept. quarterly) is one mother of a perfect storm for ABU, resulting in a utterly catastrophic and wealth destroying capitulation of the share price.
Old Pirate grade below expectations (initial estimated profits slashed) combined with POG in USD hitting a 5.5 year low and POG in AUD falling below $1500 means that sentiment for ABU is now at an all time low. And that's saying something given that ABU shares have been trading (in one form or another) since January 1992.
Share price background
The previous low at 9c was set back in November 21st 2008 (during the GFC and virtually 7 years to this day). Prior to that the low was 12c in June 1998 (around the time of the bottom of the gold market and before its steady climb began in 2001).
Prior to that ABU's share price recorded its all time high of $7.13 (or equivalent of) on November 28th, 1996, almost 19 years to this day.
Today's low of 7.4c may be of significance for several reasons IMO;
1. The all time high of $7.13 less 99% (rounded up) = 7.4c.
2. Today's low of 7.4c touched a 17.5 year old support line on the weekly log chart (see below) and bounced off it in late trade.
3. 7.4c equals a pre-consolidation price of @0.5c (who'd have thought eh). This is probably not significant but it is sadly interesting nonetheless. Pac Road's initial investment was 2.4c pre consolidation from memory, so today's low represents a near 80% decline for them.
4. 7.4c represents a market cap of @$25 million and an EV of $15 million. I dare anyone to name a cash flow positive, zero debt Australian Gold producer with an EV as low as this!! Not to mention a producer/explorer that boasts the largest landholding in the country!!
Now I'm not suggesting that everyone go out and buy truckloads of ABU shares immediately (often support lines are breached and for good reason & aside from that I don't provide investment advice). However from a chartist's perspective if this support can hold, then it may prove to be an important long term bottom from which one may want to average down or accumulate in anticipation of better times.
View attachment 117736
Disclosure: I significantly added to my holdings (at 7.4c) today.
GLTA and please DYOR before making any high risk decisions, NEVER put all your eggs in one basket and be certain of nothing except for death and taxes.
(20min delay)