Would appreciate some help understanding what is at stake with...

Would appreciate some help understanding what is at stake with regard to Johnstone... not from a revenue point of view but probability of viability.

I have no technical knowledge, so am curious as to expert's takes on the following:

What determines 'commercial viability'? Quantity of oil? "Quality" of oil? and I've seen flow rates mentioned. Are there any indications from current activity to suggest anything at this point?

Is it at all possible to ascribe any kind of probability to getting a certain result from testing, based on what we know now?

In other words, for the ignorant-but-invested like myself (I have my reasons why I invested), am i right in thinking that for a well like this, you have to flip the coin twice... and only win if it comes up heads twice? Finding oil... then having it be the 'right' oil?

thanks for indulging the gross oversimplifications, i am learning heaps